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Global Macroeconomic Update

Global Overview and Financial Markets

  • Market sentiment on U.S. Federal Reserve policy fluctuated significantly in August 2025. An unexpected rise in producer prices early in the month led investors to price in a delay for interest rate cuts.
  • However, subsequent weak economic reports shifted sentiment back towards a potential September cut. The S&P 500 stock index showed big price movements as traders adjusted their bets.
  • Global stock markets changed as investors reacted to the mixed economic reports from the U.S. and Europe. Stock markets in Europe went up, while in Japan, markets moved higher after better-than-expected GDP data.

Regional Macroeconomic Highlights

United States & Canada

  • U.S. consumer spending grew at its fastest pace in four months in July, with core services inflation up and goods prices staying flat or falling, supporting expectations for a potential September Fed rate cut.
  • Canada’s GDP contracted more deeply than anticipated in Q2 2025, with the annualised rate down by 1.6%, mainly due to weakened exports, reinforcing bets for the Bank of Canada easing.

Eurozone & UK

  • The euro zone’s manufacturing sector expanded in August 2025 for the first time since early 2022, driven by an improvement in new orders and output. 
  • Reflecting global trade pressures, German GDP contracted 0.3% in Q2 on falling exports.. 
  • Danish growth was cut to 1.4% (-50%) after weakness at Novo Nordisk and the impact of U.S. pharma tariffs. 
  • Official data confirmed Italy’s economy shrank by 0.1% in Q2 2025, mostly due to trade weakness.

Asia-Pacific (China, Japan, South Korea, etc.)

  • Asia’s factory sector contracted in August due to U.S. tariffs, led by declines in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, while China’s private PMI bucked the trend with its fastest growth in five months. 
  • China’s official manufacturing PMI signalled contraction for a fifth consecutive month in August—reflecting ongoing external trade tensions and domestic sluggishness. 
  • While Japanese business investment remained strong, manufacturer profits fell due to tariff impacts and weak overseas demand.
  • Japan’s government is seeking a record budget for FY26, driven by rising debt and increased social welfare outlays. 
  • Japan’s factory activity continued to shrink in August as export orders declined further, especially to the U.S. 
  • South Korea’s manufacturing PMI marked seven consecutive months of contraction amid U.S. tariff impacts. 
  • South Korea’s exports grew 1.3% year-on-year in August 2025, less than the 3.0% forecast, as U.S.-bound shipments fell 12.0% (their biggest drop since May 2020) after new 15% tariffs took effect, with strong gains in semiconductors offset by sharp declines in auto, machinery, and steel exports; the government announced support measures for affected exporters.

Emerging Markets (Latin America, EMEA, others)

  • Emerging market equities and currencies remained volatile on shifting trade, monetary, and capital flow outlooks, as investors rotated funds into developed markets. 
  • Latin America is forecast to grow just 1.9% as of August, with S. America supported by rebounds in Argentina, Ecuador, and Colombia, but headwinds rising elsewhere. 

Trade & Commodity Developments

  • The dominant global theme this period was the broad ripple effect of new U.S. tariffs. These measures were the primary driver of manufacturing contractions and export weakness observed in key economies across Europe and Asia, forcing a significant rerouting of global supply chains. China, for instance, re-routed key commodity imports, boosting Russian oil and Brazilian soybeans to offset U.S. tariffs.

Inflation and Labour Market Trends

  • Oil prices mostly stayed between $65 and $75 per barrel. Gold prices stayed near record highs. Commodities like copper experienced significant price fluctuations as investors monitored global news.
  • Core U.S. inflation rose on services despite weakening labour market data. 
  • German inflation increased to 2.1% year-on-year in August 2025, higher than the previous month’s 1.8% and also higher than economists’ forecast of 2.0%. Core inflation stayed at 2.7% in August
  • Germany’s unemployment reached 3.02 million—the highest since 2015—highlighting dual labour market and price challenges.                                                                 
  • Labour and price pressures continued in other core economies, notably Italy and Canada, where GDP and jobs growth weakened.

Sector Spotlights

  • Japanese business investment was strong (+7.6% capex), but profitability dropped in manufacturing, especially autos, due to export weakness and U.S. tariffs. 
  • U.S. commercial real estate saw persistent office weakness, but logistics and hotels remained resilient. 
  • Business sentiment in Germany reached a yearly high in August, though experts warned of persistent trade and energy risks.
  • The energy transition continued to drive U.S. electricity prices higher, as data centre demand for AI could bring electric use from 4.4% in 2023 to 12% by 2028 in the U.S. 
  • U.S. equity market concentration intensified, with the top 10 S&P 500 companies (mostly tech/AI) 

Indian Macroeconomic Update

Growth and Output

  • India’s economy demonstrated resilience, with GDP growing 7.8% year-on-year in April–June 2025—its fastest pace in five quarters. This growth was anchored in strong domestic fundamentals, including robust consumer demand, healthy farm output from good monsoons, and large-scale government capex. 
  • However, external pressures are mounting and creating a clear divide in the economy. The August Manufacturing PMI, while hitting a 17.5-year high of 59.3 on domestic orders, simultaneously revealed a sharp slowdown in export order growth as new U.S. tariffs took effect. Industry leaders warn that these trade barriers and sluggish private investment could moderate growth in the coming quarters.
  • Services-led growth with an estimated 7.8% rise; manufacturing’s growth slowed to 4.1% as exports acted as a drag.
  • Composite PMI (manufacturing plus services) rose to 65.2, its highest since 2005, as companies raised prices at the fastest rate in 12 years.
  • Household financial savings rebounded to 5.1% of gross national disposable income (GNDI), helping support funding for future investments.

Prices and Inflation

  • August 2025 saw the sharpest pace of price increases at Indian firms in over a decade as strong demand enabled companies to pass higher costs to customers.
  • The government launched a project in August to use Amazon and Flipkart price data for official inflation calculations, aiming to modernise CPI statistics.

Fiscal Trends

  • GST collections in August 2025 rose 6.5% y/y to ₹1.86 lakh crore, though below July’s tally; new GST reforms and slab changes expected in September, with support for MSMEs.
  • Welfare payments and rural public works projects continued to support rural incomes through August.

Trade and External Sector

  • India’s trade deficit reached an eight-month high ($27 billion) in July; it is expected to widen, as new US tariffs now cover 66% of India’s export basket, with textiles, gems, jewellery, chemicals, and seafood most affected.
  • Exim Bank forecasts exports at $108.1 billion for July–September, reflecting pressure from weak global demand and new tariffs.
  • Brokerages estimate the US tariffs could shave 0.5 percentage points off India’s GDP growth in the coming quarters.

Banking and Credit

  • Bank credit growth slowed to 9.9% in June, while industrial credit grew 7.6%; bankers grew more cautious about lending to export-driven sectors.
  • Household debt rose to 43.5% of GDP by H1 FY25, but net household financial savings are expected to improve in the coming quarters.

Employment & Small Business

  • Up to 70% drop in exports is expected for India’s textile, gems, jewellery and seafood MSMEs due to new US tariffs; industry groups warn of job losses in labour-intensive sectors.
  • Small businesses are urgently seeking non-U.S. buyers and credit lines; banks are tightening loans, and government credit support is under consideration.
  • Trends show persistent informal sector challenges and skills/equipment gaps affecting MSME resilience, especially in export-linked regions.

Policy and Outlook

  • The Finance Ministry and multiple forecasts place FY26 GDP growth at 6.5%, with rural demand and domestic investment as main strengths, and new trade barriers identified as the main macro risk.
  • Analysts in late August urged structural reforms to strengthen private consumption and productivity, warning that stimulus alone would not offset external shocks post-tariffs.
  • RBI’s August policy minutes state that US tariffs are now the main downside risk for India’s economic outlook, though domestic inflation is under control.

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