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Placement Booster: Global and Indian Macroeconomic Updates

  • 17th November 2025
  • Placement Booster

1. Global Macroeconomic Update

1.1 Growth

  • The Euro zone economy expanded at its fastest pace in more than two years in October, with the composite PMI rising to 52.9 from 51.2 in September, driven by stronger services activity and a manufacturing rebound despite French political issues.[1]
  • French GDP grew 0.5% in the third quarter, beating forecasts of 0.3% and up from 0.2% in the second quarter, supported by services and construction sectors.[2]
  • Germany’s economy is expected to remain flat this year following two straight years of decline, with companies forecasting modest 0.7% growth in 2025 amid ongoing challenges like soaring energy prices and sluggish demand from global markets.[3]
  • China’s economy requires 4.17% annual GDP growth through 2035 to achieve its modernization goal and double the 2020 GDP level.[4]
  • US holiday sales in November and December are projected to exceed $1 trillion for the first time, from last year’s $976.1 billion, fueled by consumer spending.[5]

1.2 Industrial and Manufacturing

  • Italian industrial output increased 2.8% in September after a 2.7% drop in August, surpassing the 1.5% forecast and showing the strongest monthly gain since August 2022.[6]
  • German industrial production rose 1.3% month-on-month in September, below the expected 3% gain, with automotive output jumping 12.3% while mechanical engineering fell 1.1%.[7]

1.3 Consumer and Business Sentiment

  • Australia’s consumer sentiment index climbed 12.8% to 103.8 in November from 92.1 in October, turning positive for the first time in nearly four years.[9]
  • UK services firms reported their strongest 12-month outlook since last October, with the PMI up to 52.3 from 50.8 as borrowing costs fell and technology investments grew.[10]

1.4 Inflation

  • China’s producer prices dropped 2.1% year-on-year in October, less than the 2.5% fall in September, while consumer prices rose 0.2% on holiday demand for travel and food.[17]
  • Brazil’s inflation increased 0.09% in October, down from 0.48% in September and below the 0.16% estimate, pushing the annual rate to 4.68%.[13]
  • Mexico’s annual headline inflation eased to 3.57% in October from 3.76%, within the central bank’s 3% target range, though core inflation stayed at 4.28%.[15]
  • UK companies anticipate 3% consumer price inflation over the next year, the highest since December 2023.[18]
  • An ECB survey shows a mild inflation path near the 2% target, with services prices holding steady but overall headline inflation cooling.[19]

1.5 Labor Market

  • US private sector employment fell through late October, with an average loss of 11,250 jobs per week in the four weeks ending October 25 according to ADP data.[20]
  • Private reports point to a weakening US labor market in October, with layoffs hitting a two-decade high per Challenger data,[21]
  • UK companies’ hiring outlook dropped to -0.1% for the three months to October, the first negative reading in nearly five years.[22]
  • Australia’s employment rose by 42,200 jobs in October, topping forecasts and dropping the unemployment rate to 4.3% from 4.5%.[14]
  • UK unemployment rose and wage growth slowed to 4.6% over three months to September, signaling a cooling labor market.[22]

1.6 Monetary Policy

  • Federal Reserve officials are split on a December rate cut, market odds drop to 49%  amid ongoing inflation worries and softening job data.[11]
  • The Bank of England kept its benchmark rate at 4% in a close 5-4 vote, with four members pushing for a quarter-point reduction, pointing to possible easing ahead as inflation balances out.[12]
  • Brazil’s central bank plans an early 2026 rate cut following October’s slower inflation, holding the Selic rate steady at 15%.[13]
  • Australia’s October job gains lowered expectations for Reserve Bank rate cuts, as the labor market recovered strongly.[14]
  • Mexico’s slowing inflation backs further central bank rate cuts, after ten reductions bringing the benchmark to 7.5%.[15]
  • China’s central bank committed to supportive financing to aid growth amid ongoing challenges.[16]

1.7 Services and Sector Activity

  • US services activity sped up in October, with the ISM PMI at 55.2 up from 54.9, led by new orders growth though employment stayed low around 48.[23]
  • UK services firms saw their strongest activity in a year in October, with the PMI at 52.3 as inflation eased and outlooks improved.[10]
  • China’s services expansion slowed to a three-month low in October, with the PMI at 50.6 reflecting softer new orders and jobs.[8]

1.8 Fiscal Policy and Risks

  • A US federal government shutdown could cost the economy up to $14 billion by delaying spending and hurting confidence.[24]

1.9 Trade and Financial Flows

  • Vietnam plans to finalize a trade deal with the US soon to address the large trade deficit, amid concerns over new tariffs.[25]
  • Global markets are dealing with tariffs, trade advisory councils, and a stronger dollar in the second Trump administration year.[26]
  • Asian equities faced more than $10 billion in foreign outflows in November, as the AI stock rally paused.[27]
  • US equity fund inflows jumped to a five-week high in the week ending November 7.[28]

1.10 Household and Debt

US household debt grew 1% to $18.6 trillion in the third quarter, with mortgages up $137 billion to $13.1 trillion and auto loans stable at $1.66 trillion. While,  for the recent third quarter, 9.4% of total student loan debt was more than 90 days delinquent or in default.[29]

2. Indian Macroeconomic Update

2.1 Growth Outlook

  • The HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 59.2 in October from 57.7 in September, marking a significant acceleration driven by strong domestic demand.[31]
  • India Ratings & Research (Ind-Ra) projected that the Indian economy grew at 7.2% in the second quarter (July-September 2025), driven by strong private consumption.[32]
  • The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew 4% year-on-year in September.[33]
  • Growth in the services sector (PMI) slowed to a five-month low in October.[34]
  • High-frequency data from the festive season showed strong demand for high-value discretionary items, lifting the economic outlook.[35]

2.2 Inflation

  • Retail inflation (CPI) slowed to a record low of 0.25% year-on-year in October, down from 1.44% in September.[36]
  • The decline was led by a 5.02% year-on-year fall in the food price index.[36]
  • Wholesale inflation (WPI) entered deflation, posting a reading of -1.21% year-on-year in October, a sharp reversal from the 0.13% inflation in September.[37]
  • The WPI food index was recorded at -5.04%.[37]

2.3 Labour Market

  • The national unemployment rate for persons aged 15 and above fell to 5.2% in the July-September quarter, down from 5.4% in the previous quarter.[38]
  • Rural unemployment eased to 4.4%, while urban unemployment saw a slight uptick to 6.9%.[38]
  • The female Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR) continued its upward trend, rising to 33.7%.[38]

2.4 External Sector

  • India’s foreign exchange reserves fell by $5.6 billion during the week ending October 31, 2025, to stand at $689.73 billion.[39]
  • The Indian Rupee was poised to open near its all-time low of 88.80 against the US dollar on November 14, driven by global risk-off sentiment.[40]
  • The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been actively defending the 88.80 level for over a month through dollar sales.[41]
  • The pressure comes as foreign investors have pulled nearly $17 billion from Indian equities so far in 2025.[42]The government approved a $5.1 billion package (250.6 billion rupees over six years) to provide affordable trade finance, logistics, and market support for exporters impacted by US tariffs.[43

2.5 Policy & Regulatory Reforms

  • SEBI announced plans for wide-ranging reforms to speed up foreign investor registration to just a few days, reduce trading costs, and ease short-selling rules.[42]
  • The regulator proposed relaxing pre-IPO lock-in rules to address a long-standing issue with pledged shares held by non-promoters.[44]
  • SEBI also proposed replacing the bulky abridged prospectus with a concise document summary to improve retail investor engagement.[44]
  • A SEBI panel recommended that the SEBI chairman and senior officers be required to publicly disclose their assets and liabilities annually to enhance transparency.[45]
  • The government scrapped 14 Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) quality control orders on key raw materials, including polyester fibre and various chemicals, to lower input costs.[46]
  • The statistics ministry proposed updating the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) by replacing closed factories with active ones and updating the base year to 2022-23 to improve data accuracy.[33]

In pre-budget consultations, MSME representatives urged the Finance Minister for cheaper and easier credit to help them stay competitive.[47]

2.6 Corporate & Financial Activity

  • India recorded 999 deals (M&A and PE) worth $44.3 billion in the July-September 2025 quarter, its strongest quarterly performance in six quarters.[48]
  • Three state-run firms (NaBFID, Power Grid Corp, and HUDCO) are planning to raise a combined 90 billion rupees ($1 billion) in debt, taking advantage of falling bond yields.[49]

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